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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."